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Alpha Male
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Alpha Male

Holy Deja Vu! Beware bank financings for market tops.

In light of the recent rally of the Dow from its March 9th low of 6700 to 8700 today, a feeling of deja vu fell over me. Now on the surface it would seem that the recent rally is nothing more than a bear market rally, which we have endured several times since the summer of 2007 when the first bank writedowns began, thus giving me a sense of deja vu. However, this was not it, as every rally has failed to do anything except lead us to newer lows.

No this feeling of deja vu came from the recent ba… Continue

Posted on June 2, 2009 at 2:23am —

Alpha Male

The silver lining: Mergers & Acquisitions are coming to the Dow & Nasdaq in 2009.

For the last few weeks I have been trying to find a silver lining in the carnage of the Dow and Nasdaq. You wake to stories of Dow 7000, offensive AIG bonuses, and lost trust by the general public in Wall Street. Though all these things are real problems that may take years to overcome, I forsee a silver lining in the upcoming months through an increase in U.S. mergers and acquisitions.

The silver lining began to appear to me when the Roche/Genentech deal was being hammered out. Following that… Continue

Posted on March 20, 2009 at 3:30am —

Alpha Male

Nova Chemicals buyout good news for Teck Cominco shareholders?

I, like many other investors woke up this morning to see that Nova Chemicals was purchased or saved by a $6 per share bid. In spite of the fact they had $1.8 billion in debt and that they were running out of time to cover a 100 million dollar debt payment that was coming due in March, International Petroleum (IPIC) bought them for a 350% premium to their Friday closing price.

To those who have been a longtime shareholder of Nova Chemicals at $20, $30, or $40 dollars this may have not made their… Continue

Posted on February 23, 2009 at 2:30pm —

Alpha Male

Largest Short Positions and what we should be looking for . . .

Below is a list of the largest short positions for the month of January. I believe upon closer examination, if you believe a stimulus rally is coming in the near term, and you have cash on the sidelines, a move into GE, C, and Nokia might not be a bad call (full disclosure: author owns all 3 positions).

The reason I like GE comes from its diversification. Whether it is their exposure to jet engines, media, healthcare, or nuclear plants, any stimulus gains will trickle down to their bottom line.… Continue

Posted on February 10, 2009 at 6:35pm —

Alpha Male

Gold and commodity ratios must be recognized for clear buy and sell signs.

When trading commodities, particularily gold, I like to look at how many units of one commodity I can buy for an ounce of gold. Consider when oil was $150 a barrel, you could get about 7 barrels of oil for one ounce of gold. Historically, when you see this ratio in single digits it is time to sell oil and buy gold. The alternative is happening today, when you can buy 25 barrels of oil for 1 ounce of gold, it historically means oil is too cheap and must be bought while gold must be sold. This pri… Continue

Posted on January 30, 2009 at 10:01pm —

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